Strategic error

Not a recantation of the Defra strategy refresh - but a lament for a key failure of decision-making under uncertainty.... whatever possessed me to be the only person on the planet who failed to see the last set of the Rafa v Roger epic last night. Am trying to analyse how I go this so wrong... So let us analyse the factors.

First, timing. The rain break at 7.50 meant that I could just catch the last direct train. Five minutes later I would have not been able to get it...

Second, meanness. Staying in Chichester imposed a cost - the extra £ 26 of buying a peak fare to London instead of a saver. £ 26 seemed a high price to pay for the option of a last set - when it looked improbable (notwithstanding Alex the Wimbledon weather man claiming play could restart within 25 minutes) that play would restart and finish that night.

Third, a feeling that Federer would win in the end ... after Rafa failed to take the three key break points for 5-3 in the third set; failed to impose himself at 5-2 in the tie-break; take the two match points he did create in the fourth; a feeling that in the same way as England crumbled in Adelaide, he just didn't quite believe that he could win.

And fourth, so I valued avoiding an evening in Chichester watching it rain at Wimbledon and Sue Barker get ever more despairing, a slightly early start the next morning at more than having the option on watching the final set of the greatest tennis match ever. On a par with my friend Jayne's decision not to pay £ 10 for the option to watch England win the Ashes at the Oval in September 2005 (but that had a much lower probability in March that year - so a less loony decision - but being there is a more intense delight than simply being one of the 13.1 million watching here on TV - so a higher cost for getting it wrong).

But I got it wrong. I now realise that I would have paid a really quite high price to have seen that last set of nerve-shredding tennis in the gloom of Wimbledon. So after missing the last set last year, I vowed never to miss a Nadal-Federer final - only to repeat again. Next year I will not budge - but next year the roof will reduce the uncertainty so maybe this is a dilemma that I will never face again.

Still, Rafa still won - so a great week for Spanish sport - but I can't believe I saw the football... and missed the drama of the tennis.