50 words for snow

One of the favourite sayings when I was at BP was that Eskimos had fifty words for snow -- I can't personally verify for Eskimos but I do know that if you ask a Canadian whether they can make snowmen with their latest snowfall they will look at you as though you are stupid and say that it was not packing snow - in BR speak the wrong kind of snow.  But the more general point is if an issue matters to you a lot, you delve more deeply and see more differentiation in it. That's the theory behind our segmentation of environmental behaviour into seven key groups (yes I know I need a link here... but do a google search on Defra and Environmental behaviours and you get it)  -- my mother is a waste watcher and I like to think I am a positive green. But I assume that Tesco, with their loyalty data base and targeted marketing can divide their customer base into rather more segments than that (if I used my card enough I think they would have me down as intermittent internet customer with big muesli and pasta eating friend who exploits service to substitute for lift and buys all fresh food somewhere else - otherwise my four times a year supermarket shopping habit looks a bit weird).All this is a rather long preamble to the book Microtrends by Mark Penn -- aka HC's pollster - who claims to have identified soccer moms as a key constituency for BC and now has decided that we need to look at what the blurb describes as "small forces behind today's big changes".  Not the deepest book in the world -- and very US in focus... but some interesting food for thought.  First the personal -- what microtrends am I a member of? Certainly not aspiring snipers, young knitters or uptown tattoed.  Can claim an ancient experience as an office romancer - but hardly part of a new trend, suppose am a  bit of a wordy woman (woman taking over verbal professions, have elements of snowed-under-slob and maybe with new hip should have a go at either being a cougar (woman dating much younger man) or an "internet married" - couple who find each other on the internet.  Until this year I also counted as a DIY doctor (though not in quite the way he has it) - don't think recent experience quite makes me into a surgery lover....not sure getting broadband has yet converted me from a new Luddite into a tech fatale (women who love IT).So I can relate to some of these -- and know other people who fit into other categories.   But that is all a bit of a parlour game (not necessarily a bad one -- may use it to liven up a rather deadly dinner party -- would you rather be an Video game grown up or an archery mom).  But the more interesting policy question is do any of these trends have any relevance over here -- and are there other microtrends UK that might do and we need to start thinking about?
In some the UK already seems to be in advance of the US -- eg interracial families as a microtrend seems a rather strange one to single out as new.  In others the US seems different -- one of the interesting questions is why Muslims in the US seem as MP puts it to be much more moderate than their European counterparts - which has a lot to do with the way Muslim migration has occurred into the US - more Hasnat Khan than Abu Hamza. Second home owning doesn't seem worth singling out here -- though interestingly the one UK microtrend that makes it into the international section is "Living Apart Together" -- MP reckons there are 1m committed couples in the UK who won't move in together even though they live in the same town. An interesting additional housing pressure -- and very interesting if you look at potential additional barriers that could be created by giving cohabiting couples the same "rights" post break up as married couples. Some of the stuff about sons as carers, the working retired and extreme commuting or working from home have potential interest.But are there any specifically UK microtrends we might want to pick up on? I think my recent experiences have just illustrated one microtrend - the difficulty of single people finding proper after care near their homes (or as the doctor said -- you're going to be looked after by your 85 year old mother?) - and the erosion of options for in family care can have very serious policy implications. We have already seen the end of careers for life - but am not sure yet that people like headhunters have woken up to the desire for lateral moves (or if they have they don't understand it - cue business opportunity).  More generally it suggests that the move from monolithic to personalised services might be even more of a challenge than it appears -- and beyond the ability of bureaucratised service models to deliver. The second policy question seems to me to be whether there are existing microtrends that we want to use policy to support becoming macrotrends -- and create tipping point effects.  The number of car ads (there are a lot on Sky Sports and Eurosport -- though the latter also has the Defra climate change filler) suggest that the minority interest of environmental performance of cars has now gone mainstream.  But can we do the same for non-car ownership? Train travel (when will Trailfinders start booking rail fares to Europe?)? Changed attitudes to home ownership? Charitable giving? And how do we help people stand up to peer or community pressure - when they may not be part of anything that has yet fomented into a microtrend?Anyway, if you have spotted a UK or European microtrend, add it here....

So far so good - 3

Last of the self-regarding postings...can now ditch one crutch and try to walk unaided a bit... and am just trying to sort out getting onto an exercise bike. Onwards and forwards. I might have to post the CD of new hip bone growth on YouTube. Off to try out new tougher exercises and then catch up on Spanish. Hasta pronto and happy Easter.

So far so good - 2

Who said there was no such thing as cold fusion...? anyway, suffice to say VERY satisfactory day with the consultant (words those that know me well would have given good odds against me ever saying). Am progressing better than expected and the bone has nearly joined around the implant....

which is a long way of saying that Phase 2 starts tomorrow. I can start putting weight on my left hip and move toward ditching the crutches - and as long as I avoid public transport (this let them take taxis approach to life a bit at variance with general transport philosophy espoused in blog I realise - but there have to be exceptions to every rule), can start to go back to work part-time. Has to be said the one discovery of today is that taxis are much harder than cars to get in and out of - maybe I need to ask for a spare government Jaguar.

The only slightly off note was when aforesaid consultant said that he had just had to re-operate on another osteotomy (gross-out leg straightening) patient whose op went wrong -- and then said that I should find that reassuring because it meant my chances of it going wrong were reduced. Did this guy ever do any probability? Maybe he was right when he said in his day you could get to do medicine with three Cs....

So back in six weeks when I discover whether I can hop back on the bike... but a bit pessimistic on the chances of defending my Defra mixed doubles crown. May have to wait for next year.

But best part of the day was seeing everyone else hard at work ...

So far so good - 1

Great policy thoughts (or even rather feeble ones) will have to wait for the weekend as this is a key week I go back to see the consultant and see whether I am en route to a million or am going to have to be satisfied with a pathetic £ 1000. Quite good so far - went to the physio today who was very pleased (he thinks I am a diligent patient which is a bit of a shock - no one has ever accused me of that before). Confessed that he had been concerned that years of duff hip meant my muscles had atrophied but turns out that they haven't and my slavish adherence to (admittedly easy) exercise regime combined with exploiting the public good that is the Arun Leisure Centre mean that he is VERY pleased with progress so far....

Next instalment tomorrow when I leave West Sussex for the first time in seven weeks and come up to London to see whether I get the go ahead from the consultant to put weight on my hip and open up a whole new array of possibilities - and I even might be allowed to go back to work.

Not sure I can stand the excitement -- Christmas on March 19th...

Positive feedback

I have just come back from my first ever experience of a community consultation. I am not sure these things exist in inner London - the only time I tried to put an issue onto the agenda for the Bayswater residents forum, Westminster CC studiously ignored my email. So I had to wait to come to Chichester to be empowered...

But this has proved a really interesting and encouraging day - not least to see the words and concepts we bandy about in green and white papers or in ping pong with CLG being used by people who are actually trying to put it all into practice. The issue is the development of a large ex-NHS site in NE Chichester -- which with another site is going to add 1100 homes -- or about a 10% increase in the existing housing stock.

At first I adopted the Star Trek principle of no interference -- after all I am just a temporary interloper down here. But that proved impossible to resist by the time we got to the post-it session -- I maintained my Trappism for a mighty twenty minutes.

But some impressions --

First a huge level of ambition. Zero carbon. Code 6 of the Code for Sustainable Homes for the new build. Eco-homes Excellent for the refurb. When I suggested the aim should be for Chichester to be the Freiburg of Britain, it turned out that the developers had already taken a party to Freiburg earlier in the week - and were arranging another trip to that other European poster city for sustainability - Copenhagen. And interesting that the people who did the sustainability presentation were all German.

Second, how much the locals involved wanted to see somewhere that enabled people to live sustainably - and how much desire there was for high quality community facilities - whether for the arts, for public promenades, for young people -- or just for allotments.

But third, how transport looked to be the Achilles heel. If the impact of all the development is not to be to make the city even more gridlocked than it is now, the Council is going to have to put some serious investment into a radical replanning of transport across the whole city. But also some options to use the development on the site to provide facilities to North east Chichester that it lacks now - which forces everyone to drive into the centre or the the south side. Clearly important to look at these schemes beyond their footprint and to work them into an overall strategy for the locality. Interesting that the degree of thought that had gone into thinking through the transport implications and how to reduce car use/ ownership. need to provide parking space lagged so far behind their thinking about the fabric of the buildings (or indeed how to minimise the impact of the construction phase).

But the developers - and some of those present - had real concerns over the keenness and capacity of the local council to think laterally and creatively enough - and at the right time to make sure things happen.

There was a remarkable degree of positive consensus from those who turned up. And that was a lot of people - 400 over two days. The process was really good - for those who turned up. And some of the people were amazingly knowledgeable. But one of the difficulties in designing for a new community is whether the people who live close - and get the leaflets asking them to come - are the people who will want to live there. If the people who showed up are the new community it will be 70% retired; predominantly male; have about 1% children - and no teenagers; hardly anyone in their twenties. It will have a lot of people who are keen on the arts - and some very keen churchgoers (the one emerging flashpoint was over future use of the chapel - a battle of secularists vs spiritualists). So a big challenge going forward is to find the people who might actually want to live - or work there -- and involve them.

But that aside, its hard to believe that this conversation would have been taking place three years ago - that people in Chichester would be flocking to spend their weekend at a table facilitated by German architects discussing the ins and outs of zero carbon, greywater recycling and sustainable design. This is the first time I have spent five hours on a Saturday in a freezing, semi-derelict theatre and come away thinking that some of the things we do at work might just be making a difference.

Now we have to see whether this really does catalyse the transformation of Chichester from car park central into the Freiburg of Britain. Lass uns hoffen.

Markets work shock

In a week that tends to be characterised by economic illiteracy its good to see a healthy dose of commonsense coming through in a poll in today's Times: most people think the Budget was pretty sensible, won't make much difference to them and that the government could do relatively little in the face of global economic trends. (sorry Clive - still can't do hyperlinks).  Which puts into perspective the yelps of the brewing industry that 4p on a pint will finish off large numbers of pub - and the emotion on either side of the 2p on fuel debate.

The interesting thing about listening to the news apart from the budget is how much prices are now an issue -- and just how big some of those price movements are.  From oil now over $ 100/ barrel - up by $80 since January 2002 to wheat prices more than doubling since the beginning of 2006 and iron ore prices sextupling since 2003.  To add some degree of scale -- that price rise in oil is eight times the implicit tax on carbon through the current variant of the EU emissions trading scheme.

These massive price shifts are sending signals that governments would never manage to get together the political constituency to impose as taxes -- whether that is to drive more fuel efficient cars, recycle virgin materials or stop wasting grain on animal feed, or the need to pay more for your pork or stop eating bacon butties. The only (and not insignificant downside) is that the beneficiaries of the price hikes are those who happen to have invested in oil or mining companies or arable farmers -and overcautious governments who missed the boat on the agenda see what could have been useful additions to the national coffers instead transferred to the people who were savvy or lucky enough to be holding the parcel when prices began to soar.

Of course prices can go up as well as down. The US department of agriculture is already saying that current high grain prices are a temporary blip as more land will be planted and pig farmers might take solace in that diagram [Cobb-Douglas? or is it cobweb? if only I hadn't rashly thrown out my first year economics notes in a once in thirty year cleaning frenzy last year --i Knew they would come in handy some time]that features in first term economics to show how the Chicago hog market never came into equilibrium - but in the long-run its hard to see how 3bn more people with the majority wanting western style resource intensive living standards won't put a bit of upward pressure on finite natural resources.

So the green movement might just have to start waking up to the market as friend rather than foe -- and the smart move might be to suggest to governments - and voters - that getting ahead of the curve and grabbing a piece of the action makes sense.

Much ado about nothing?

its Cheltenham week at the races and Budget week in the Treasury.  Newspapers are working themselves into a frenzy of speculation, special pull-out supplements are being commissioned, terrestrial channels are about to clear the airwaves and the IFS is working overtime to develop a series of decreasingly typical stereotype families to tell us how much better or worse off we are likely to be next year than against an index-linked base...

Let me confess straight away that I love budgets (need to be more upfront since I failed to declare my passion for AC in earlier blog)  -- or at least loved them when I was in the Treasury.  They were the biggest adrenaline rush ever to hit the then antiseptic corridors of 1, Parliament Street. The culmination of weeks of long hours, weekends of work, the day when HMT and the Chancellor was the centre of the world (and when there aren't crises to deal with, there are remarkably few of those), and a great excuse for parties and for betting on the length of the speech.  So its easy to see why HMT wants to maintain the budget mystique unmodernised - but also interesting to ask whether the Budget really merits the attention it gets and whether the Budget as event gets in the way of the Budget as good policy-making.

When we had more limited government it was easy to see why the Budget was a big event.  But it is no longer clear that the Budget really warrants the amount of time and effort the broadcasters devote to it.  There is much agonising over whether the Chancellor will go ahead with the 2p increase in fuel duty tomorrow -- I have no idea whether he will or not -- but when I ran fuel pricing in Spain for BP that was a decision that I made every week -- and the lunchtime TV schedules were not cleared for that.  95% of the Budget detail is for the partners of KPMG and PWC, 0.000001% of potential viewers and the number of people affected - or indeed able to understand - most of the Budget measures is far less than for statements by the Health Secretary or the Children Schools and Family Secretary.  We no longer have the twenty minutes on the MTFS (medium term financial strategy to readers under 45) that characterised the budgets of the Howe-Lawson era -- but it is impossible for either the viewer or the studio pundits to make any real sense of the changing forecasts announced by the Chancellor at the start of the speech. In terms of viewer relevance, viewer comprehensibility and impact it is just not clear that the Budget still warrants the deference it gets.

But second, it is far from clear that the Budget as event is the best way of making economic policy,  The secrecy is supposed to apply to market sensitive measures -- but the really market moving measures have to be announced before eight o'clock in the morning when the markets are closed - in the UK at least. But Budget measures - even with the advent of the PBR - are developed behind closed doors for no really good reason.  They look very anachronistic in an era when government has got hugely better at consultation and co-production of policy.  And this becomes more important not less as the Budget becomes a place to set government policy well beyond the narrow realms of tax policy - and as we use tax policy for wider aims than simply determining how we finance public spending.

And third, the Budget as event has the effect of creating more policy than necessary.  So worried have Chancellors always been about the Budget as non-event that the Budget itself becomes overstuffed with measures to appease every group and our tax code gets ever more complicated,  In the Treasury we used to dream of a Budget when the Chancellor stood up - said 5p on fags, 10p on whisky, nothing else changes and sat down. But in every Conservative budget we had an increasingly despairing search for budget lollipops -- to generate positive headlines -- most of which individually would never make it out of the policy starting gates. 

So maybe, once we put the tax system onto a proper statutory index-linked basis (that 2p is just money illusion after all), we could get to a position where the Budget is reduced to a written answer of "no change" and we would - with the exception of the accountants and tax advisers and other deadweight costs on the economy - all be able to focus on more interesting things instead.

But finally -- don't worry Evan -- will still be hanging on to your every word tomorrow.