Revealing preferences

Economics (real economists can stop reading here) offers many useful insights and one of them comes from revealed preferences --put quite simply instead of theorising about how much you would be prepared to pay for something, it shows how much you are actually prepared to pay for something.  I have been thinking quite a lot about this recently as I have become a major consumer of the local service economy -- and it seems to me that is revealing quite an interesting hierarchy of charges.I was quite taken aback for instance (and this may seem off) with how little my consultant charged for his part in cutting me to bits.. a clear hierarchy -- he charged £ 1750 (and the anaesthetist charged £ 690) for a couple of hours work plus visits every morning to discuss my progress and how India were getting on vs Australia.  That may seem quite a lot, but it was a very small proportion of the overall package given the costs of the hotel/ hospital.  If he had lifted his fee by 50% I wouldn't have batted an eyelid (though whether Visa would have increased my credit limit enough to pay is another thing).

The second person who seems to me not to know her own value is Mary. I have only just discovered Mary but she is what you might call a treasure.  She will mend, shorten, remake anything.  Since I discovered her she has rescued a moth-eaten cashmere sweater, taken three sizes out of a jacket and shortened two pairs of trousers (though they may have to be taken back to be lengthened since my left leg has grown by an inch and a half) -- and all with change from £ 40.  And add to the list Sue the chiropodist - I had never visited one of these before but she seems to have done wonders for my feet in half an hour for half the price of getting my hair cut at a relatively cheap place (and a tenth of what I have been known to pay -guilty secrets).

This may all seem a rather odd and inconsequential ramble. But it puts the NAO report on GPs into an interesting light.  If, rather than have their contract determined by government, and provide services to punters free at the point of delivery, what would they or could they charge and what would people be prepared to pay.  I am not the right person to ask - I would pay very good money to keep out of their clutches (and indeed do which is why I always get travel injections from Trailfinders).  But not clear that if you had asked the patients they could have doubled their charges over the past few years while radically cutting back the offer to their customers.  Since GPs pride themselves on being private contractors -- and the government's mistake in negotiating the GP contract seems have been to underestimate just how much they would react to incentives - it would be quite interesting to expose them to a world of revealing preferences.

Missing in action

Last week there was an intriguing piece on the news about new government advice to employers on the need to design every building to take account of terrorist risk -- with some advice that it made sense to design in at the start as a cheaper alternative to retrofitting. Since that sounded rather like the line we take on the need to build in sustainability features and make buildings resilient to climate change I thought it might be worth a look -- not least to see how generalised the advice was. After all, the risk of higher summer temperatures or more extreme weather events -- or indeed higher prices for carbon - are rather more generalised than the risk of terrorist attack - just ask the Save our Selsey campaign who are not quaking at the thought of jihad in West Sussex. So while the advice might make sense for some high profile locations in densely packed cities, I was interested to see just how big a cost the government was thinking made economic sense.

But the report seems to be missing in action. Despite there being a nice video of the report to replay on the BBC website, I could turn up nothing on the Home Office website. And a google search yielded no results at all. so my excellent scheme to contrast vs our sustainability advice frustrated at the first attempt.

And not for the first time. Back in the autumn the PM announced a new terrorism strategy which sounded interesting - not least for the proposal to require baggage checks at mainline train stations (which would have done nothing to foil the Madrid bombings where the bombers took the trains into Atocha mainline station). The proposal to ban cycles from any proximity to any potential target including train stations seemed to fly in the face of the need to move to lower carbon travel. So I thought I might look at the way in which the carbon assessment had been done in the regulatory impact assessment. But again, whatever document underpinned the statement was missing in action on the Home Office website - and certainly is not there today.

This may all seem a bit obsessive and sad. And it may all just be that the Home Office hasn't got its website together. But one of the other lessons from the excellent PB (see previous post) is the power of "terror" in politics and how "availability" affects the assessment of risk - why people are much more worried about some risks than others. It would just be reassuring to know that we are being equally rational about climate change as other more visible threats.

And at least Yasmin Diamond is back at work and now can sort out the HO website....

Irrational voters -- part two

Today's book of the week (if that makes sense) is "The Political Brain" by Drew Westen - a psychology professor and frustrated Democrat from Emory University in Georgia -- an an attempt to explain why Americans keep voting Republican when it doesn't seem to be in their interests to do so.  I had wanted to read this for a long time once I saw in the Economist review that the book was much sought after by both Presidential candidates and Gordon Brown's team...

It seems that despite the fact that Bill Clinton is the poster Democrat for Westen, he may not have given the book to Hillary as a Christmas present. The key thesis is that people decide on emotions not issues -- and no point trying to convince voters with facts, arguments, evidence.  More theses: the need to take on "difficult issues" not avoid them; the need not to cede values to your opponents; the importance of "curb appeal" in selecting candidates.  And an awful lot of examples of how successive Democrats - Dukakis, Gore, Kerry have been out Atwatered and outRoved to the White House.  And it suggests that my Edwards/ Obama supporting friends might just be onto something..

So does any of this have any application here... I am sure we would not be too surprised by the result that people go with their feelings and are not convinced by reams of statistics.  And some  very interesting stuff on the politics of the "war on terror".  But some of the most interesting stuff is on the need to use the right frames to discuss issues -- with a lot of cross references to Republican pollster Frank Luntz's "Words that Work" (for those of you who don't remember Frank Luntz he is the guy who pops up on Newsnight, looking as though he has come via Krispy Kreme and whose focus group during the Tory conference gave David Cameron leadership momentum (and who would have heralded a John Reid Premiership if Labour had reacted in the same way)).

According to the "Words that Work" thesis, "protecting the environment" would do nothing for the average American voter and "global warming" even less.  Much more complimentary about Al Gore's reframing to "climate crisis" in his Oscar wining movie. The book is also very critical of the Democrat consultants (the real villain of the piece) warning Gore off talking about the environment in 2000.  But I am not sure that they even bothered to market test "sustainable development" - but not sure it would have scored very high as a gut appeal that would have people rushing to the polls.   

But apart from reading this have also just finished Gabriel Garcia Marquez's Chronicle of a Death Foretold in Spanish -- which was all fine EXCEPT I just can't work out what the end of the story with the non-virginal bride was... to save me re-reading in English, if anyone would like to explain this to me, would be very welcome. Otherwise weekend has been an orgy of televised sport from round the world -- golf from Arizona, tennis from Qatar, cricket from Christchurch and Sydney --but the implausible drubbing of the French in the Stade de France probably the highlight.. Spanish teacher has asked me to write a poem this week -- which will require a level of creativity not seen since I was fifteen. Or I just ask a niece for a link to a GCSE homework website. Have only agreed to do this in the basis that next week I get to do a Spanish version of a climate change presentation. 

A new model for flexible staff resourcing?

Not sure if our Renew colleagues have focused on events in India yesterday -- where the first ever auction for cricket talent took place for the new Indian Premier League. But maybe it offers a model for the future...

after a few players were identified to lead their home cities, the rest -- a motley collection of the good, the were-good-but-now-slightly-over-the-hill and the up and coming were divided into groupings and the new franchises were each given a budget to bid to optimise their teams. And with some interesting results with different strategies (solid v flashy; batters v bowlers) emerging -- and some players had rather rude wake up calls when they were sold at the base price... so might be really interesting if once we were through business planning we set up a Defra auction market to see who would pay what for whom -- and who would be the Glenn McGrath left on the bench with no takers.

Talking of HR innovation was interested yesterday with the Alan Johnson proposal for wellness notes. Having never in my life seen a Med 3, this is exactly what I got my consultant to write for me .. to say that I could work (or in his rather odd phrase "contribute intellectually") but not come into the office. But the fact that I am spending so much time blogging might suggest that other intellectual inputs not yet in much demand....so it may not just be doctors that have to change.. incidentally when I asked my doctor for that note his first reaction was -- you're in the government -- they are really slack there. Surely not....

The view from the car park

Since I am effectively under house arrest, I am reliant on the "media" to know what else is going on in the big wide world... most of that is the same as the rest of you are looking at -- but I thought it might be interesting to have a look at the Defra agenda from the perspective of the good burghers of West Sussex as reported by this week's guest publication, the Chichester Observer.  The first thing that you note about the CO is that the bit of news that there is is basically a wrapper around a mountain of car and housing ads....this must be a city of second hand car dealers and Location, Location, Location groupies.  But the news itself shows that the Defra agenda is THE big news agenda outside the metropolis...or almost. 

Headlining this week in Chi (what the locals call it -- and easier to type -- getting better but still rubbish) is the tragic "Disabled Man dies after falling out of back of minibus" -- sounds like a need for more regulation there to me (though quite what regulation escapes me for the time being.  But also making the news is a real Defra double hit (and potential treble) -- complaints about localised air pollution by the residents of Orchard Road -- caused in part by another local cause celebre - lorries driving toward the site for gravel extraction in Lavant.  This was a big feature in last week's news as RAGE (residents against - you can guess the rest) had its first protest meeting.  And Lavant is also the location in dispute over whether its pretty enough to justify redrawing the proposed southern boundary of the incipient South Downs National Park -- presumably too much gravel extraction will make that a no brainer.

So moving on through the paper, the other big political story is on Post Office closures.  A new perspective on the rural post office issue is that these seem to me to be closures on estates or little parades of shops where people are all within quite easy walking, biking (except they don't do that here.. see earlier blog) or bussing distance of central Chichester.  But there is clearly a real campaign being waged and BERR had better be ready for the charges of destroying the community.

By page five we are into an interesting harbinger of issues to come with the Subnational review with the district councils up in arms about County Hall's "confrontational approach" over disposal of surplus land -- maybe why Richard McCarthy has decided he needs to sort out the West Sussex LAA. I bet SEEDA is looking forward to being the referee in this. What is striking down here is how many infill sites are being built on == and there are 7000 homes slated for the old army barracks up the road.

By p6 we have moved onto cute kids time --- one lot for an environmentally friendly school travel plan (well done Birdham Primary) and another for giving up chips and being a healthy school (go Thorney Island!) - they also claim over half the children walk or cycle to school. But the really big news there is an invasive species issue - a plant never seen in the UK before found in Chichester Harbour -- hands up who knows what a mullein is? this is apparently a Middle Eastern mullein which may have got here courtesy of a returning soldier from Iraq (who then went straight birdwatching in full kit --not sure I would buy that).  And a good year too for rare arable in the harbour..but a mixed year for wildfowl - Brent geese, red-breasted mergansers and pintail up; teal, shelduck and goldeneye all down. Little egrets stable.  Sounds like the shipping forecast.

... in which Selsey Bill - part of the wonderfully named Manhood peninsula - always features.  The peninsula gets its own news - but the big news there is about a new bakery so its not quite clear why.   But lower down there is the ongoing big Defra story here - the cost of flood defences and a Phil Woolas mention for answering a PQ from the local MP!  estimates of 4000 houses at risk by 2108 if sea coast defences not maintained. A complaint about Cost Benefit Analysis from the founder of Save our Selsey including a comment" at the moment you are more likely to get government funding for making new salt marshes than protecting existing towns like Selsey".


Amazingly for the CO we have to wait for the first mention of rubbish or recycling -- usually a bit of a news staple (front page headline a couple of weeks back about a pensioner's bin not being collected because it wasn't pushed quite far enough out on the pavement) - but this is a textile recycling success story so its buried on p9. You may be losing the will to live now -- but the Down Memory Lane is a whole page on - Land Girls -- who says Defra doesn't set the news agenda.

Bit of a lull through the letters -- and then finally some other people get a look in Whit stories about skills, daycare and 11 year olds drinking (different stories) -- but then we strike back with a big story on .. rabies - though this turns out to be about a puppy rescued at Gatwick -- and no one needed to call the Pet Helpline.
This seems to be an unusually carbon light edition -- normally there are lots of climate change stories as well.  But when the PM next asks what is setting the political agenda beyond the M25 - you have a nifty evidence base to draw on.

And the house arrest comment was something of an exaggeration.  Indeed social life is burgeoning by going out to eat two days running.  All fine -- except for the pub where they were worried about me sitting with crutches at the emergency exit (aka some French windows).  But this has provoked an idea for the next series of Dragon's Den - what I need more than anything (now my foot lassoo is redundant and I have discovered you can buy ankle weights at Argos for virtually no money - thanks China) is a portable crutch holder.. Entrepreneurs, where are you?

40 years on

One of the minuses of my current condition is that I have to sleep on my back -- and so tend to wake up feeling as though someone has tied a load of bricks around my waist -- NOT fun --  but good for catching up either with the world according to J Agnew and G Boycott from whatever obscure NZ town England are now playing in (find Napier on a map...) or when there is no cricket for listening to the 5.30 news briefing.  On Saturday this handily reminded me that it was three years since Kyoto was ratified (handy since i have a friend who's birthday I can only remember as the day Kyoto was ratified) but today they said that it was forty years since the brief shining moment in which we had three years of permanent summertime -- a good example of a policy before its time that was nixed through some really poor abuse of evidence.

But a policy in which there are glimmerings of interest.  It seems bizarre to have debates about resource efficiency and the economics of solar power yet so hideously neglect the solar power we get with no transmission losses, no need for a BERR subsidy and for free.  Yet news last week that the ECB is planning to put floodlights in every country ground -- good for those of us who are fans of evening cricket -- but a huge resource waste when in summer it gets light even in Southern England by four am -- yet we let it get dark by eight thirty and in August we play tennis under floodlights at eight.  And one of the fascinating things about sitting at home all day is to realise that even in February it stays light until half past five -- an hour time shift now would allow us to cycle home before it gets dark and it is already getting light well before seven.

There are ways  and ways of doing this -- align with European time and the CBI would be happy campers.  Flex during the year if you prefer. Introduce a new shoulder time to cope with the misery of November to January.   But better use of natural light in the evenings has potential to be good for the environment, for health - safer, easier to walk, play sport, get outside, cut crime, encourage safer streets.  When I worked at No. 10 it was the only policy the ragbag of Major advisers in the Policy Unit could agree on. 

There are not many policies which seem to hit so many benefit buttons for no cost and potential savings.  Even George Bush is doing it - American summertime begins a month earlier this year. But maybe if we don't want to do it nationally, we should have a local pilot -- one for the Mayoral manifestos?

In praise of Adam

not for those of you who are not fans of big-eared Australian cricketers...  one of the huge advantages of my enforced absence and idleness (well apart from ten minute bouts of leg lifting and the odd bit of emailing) is that I have been able to indulge in extreme cricket watching.  February sees a sideshow of England screwing up against the Kiwis but the main event is the Gilly farewell tour aka the Commonwealth Bank triangulate series between Australia, India and Sri Lanka.  Since the great Adam Gilchrist announced his retirement from non excessively remunerated cricket during the fourth test last month, this is Australia's and our chance to say goodbye to a fantastic cricketer.

What is so good about him.  There are the ears - positively Richard Wilson-esque (see AC diaries page 200 something) (and, Prince Charles excepted, I have always had a very soft spot for big ears). The fact that despite the ears, he manages to be an incredibly aerodynamic aerobatic wicket-keeper.  But the real thing is the way he bats. The power.  The Bothamesque excitement when he comes to the crease. The way he hits the ball - and the way he has transformed how one-day cricket is played -- though that may be more the legacy of the 1996 Sri Lankan world cup victory and the relaisisaiotn of just how many runs you can score in the first fifteen overs of one day international.  But more than any of these Adam Gilchrist has transformed the way test cricket is played -- as part of the Waigh revolution that meant that 3 an over now seems very meagre fare indeed as the Australians upped scoring rates to 4 an over.  And he also played fairer tha most other cricketers of his generation.

Just as I can never answer the question of when I started to love cricket, nor can I remember when I became a mad Gilchrist fan.  And it has caused much grief -- wanting to have one member of the opposition to succeed big time, while the team loses. And despite many attempts to see my hero in real life, too many attempts have been lamentable failures or near misses.  I was in Spain during the 2001 Ashes and saw a rump of a day at Lords and the Waugh twins bat England out of the game and declare before Gilchirst needed to bat at the Oval -- and that was the series where Gilchrist kept on turning games when England looked to be creating good positions, reducing the Aussies to 100-5 only for AG to help them put on 200 plus for the last five.  And one of the reasons the Aussies lost in 2005 was that Gilchrist had a miserable series.  I just missed his record one day score at Hobart in 2004 - deciding there was no point staying in Tasmania for the one-sided travesty that would be Australia vs Zimbabwe.  And I missed that on TV by lokcing myself out of my friend's flat in Sydney. I missed his fastest test century in Perth that finally won the Ashes back in 2006 -- and haven't even seen it on TV as I was with TV-free friends in Tasmania... But I did see other great innings on television but also a great century in Sydney live in 2003 -- when I witnessed the rarest of combinations -- a Gilchrist century and an England win.  No need to choose.

So having just watched his hundred today in his last game at the WACA -- and the great scenes as he walked on and off, suffice to say that he will be missed -- by all the wicketkeeper batsmen who fail to be the next Gilchrist (a list of England failures - Geraint Jones, Matt Prior, Paul Nixon, Phil Mustard ...); by all the opposition atatcks who are less likely to see balls sail over the boudary for effortless sixes; by squash balls who will no longer need to be cut in half; by Australina who will have to enthuse about Brad Haddin... but also by me.  At least for the next Ashes I will be able to be totally unambivalently pro-England.

so as the signs at the WACA said today -- thanks Gilly -- and here's to some more cracking innings over the next couple of weeks. And then I might just have to have an SD dilaogue which coincides with the Indian cricket league - or maybe you would finanlly like to play county cricket - for Surrey.