tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5277761652423452152023-11-15T16:26:08.142+00:00RutterancesJill Rutterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10017022261677991636noreply@blogger.comBlogger76125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-527776165242345215.post-70428057347408368322016-03-18T21:59:00.000+00:002016-03-18T21:59:45.312+00:00Context, context, context....<br />
The Chancellor is developing an unenviable track record of Budget faux pas. Yet again he has stumbled in the search for acceptable ways to pay for tax cuts.<br />
<br />
Time was, when a Chancellor facing the scale of deterioration in the public finances that was unveiled on Wednesday, that he would have turned to the nation and intoned “our long-term ambition remains to raise tax thresholds and increase the point at which people start paying tax at the higher rate. But the worsening economic outlook since the Autumn Statement means I cannot yet afford to do that.”<br />
<br />
At a stroke he would have not needed to rely on cuts to personal independence payments to pay for his tax reductions.<br />
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Or he could have taken another tack. “Over the past two years motorists have benefited from a dramatic fall in the price they pay at the pump for petrol. While prices were rising, freezing fuel duty was the right thing to do. But with prices at their lowest levels since XX now it is reasonable to add XX to the price of a litre of petrol. This enables me to start meeting our manifesto commitments to reduce tax paid on incomes .... ”. For good measure he could have even added in a bonus Paris climate change mention.<br />
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But he chose to do neither of these measures, neither politically easy, but looking better in comparison by the minute as the row over PIPs escalates with the policy being downgraded from firm announcement on Friday, to scored Budget measure on Wednesday to something being consulted on by 10.55 on Thursday evening.<br />
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The Chancellor has been there before. In 2012 he dipped into the Treasury’s big box of tax anomalies to find ways to pay for the tax threshold hike the Liberal Democrats demanded as their price for allowing a top rate tax cut. The result as an “omnishambles” budget.<br />
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In July 2015, he used a £ 4bn cut in tax credits to make his numbers add up. His autumn reversal forced him to miss his own “welfare cap”.<br />
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We have long argued that lack of internal challenge leads to bad policy making. The Treasury is particularly vulnerable. Budget “secrecy” means only the Chancellor and (sometimes) No.10 have an overview of the whole Budget context – the ups and the downs. And in Budgets, context matters – because context determines whether measures appear fair or unfair.<br />
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When the PIP cuts were unveiled in a Friday written statement by a DWP junior Minister, there were a few squawks from disability lobbyists. They became politically toxic when set alongside the Chancellor’s other Budget choices. And if course, this is not a unique Osborne phenomenon – the same applied when Gordon Brown decided to abolish the 10p tax rate to pay for a general income tax cut.<br />
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The big decision in the Treasury used to be “the Chancellor’s budget judgement.” That used to mean whether there was to be a net hike or net giveaway. Increasingly though the Chancellor’s Budget judgements – of what mix of measures will be politically sustainable – look questionable. As I have argued before, that points to the need to open up the process so the Chancellor can get some help to see the bigger picture.<br />
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Jill Rutterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10017022261677991636noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-527776165242345215.post-61470515701923470342013-06-21T13:13:00.000+01:002013-06-21T13:13:16.435+01:00Why the Wimbledon draw is a warning to policy makers
<br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></b><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Seeding matters in
tennis.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Get the seedings – the
assessment of who is most likely to win the tournament - wrong, and the public
are denied the best final they might see – as happened at the French Open two
weeks ago.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The tournament organisers at
Wimbledon have just committed that error and produced an unbalanced draw –
though less a bad one than there might have been. <o:p></o:p></span></i></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">
</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">Most of the world’s top tennis tournaments apply a simple
rule.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They seed players according to
their current place in the world rankings – which are calculated on a player’s
performance over the past year. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">
</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">Wimbledon doesn’t do that.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It has always said that, since the grass court season is so short, and
thus plays so little part in determining the rankings, they reserve their right
to adjust to recognise grass court performance.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>For the men’s tournament they have an algorithm to do that.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For the women’s they exercise judgement – and
that has led them in the past to bump the formidable Williams sisters up the
seeding chart. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">But even with these get-out clauses, the sports pages are
full of condemnation of the decision to seed former champion, Rafael Nadal at
No.5. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">
</span><br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">Data driven<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">
</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">The reason for Nadal’s seeding is quite simple.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Despite winning the French Open, Nadal is currently
at No.5 in the world.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That is what the
data says and data does not lie. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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</span><br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">Context matters<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">
</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">But there is a reason for Nadal’s lowly ranking – he spent 7
months of the last season at home in Mallorca unable to play.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So the people ahead of him in the rankings
have six months more points than him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The fact that he is fifth in the rankings despite being absent for half
the year is pretty amazing. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">
</span><br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">Formulaic adjustment <o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">
</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">So why is Nadal not benefiting from the adjustment
formula?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Because that too is very rules
bound.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It takes account of performance
on grass.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At first sight Nadal – twice a
winner at Wimbledon (remember 2008 and his gloomy vanquishing of the seemingly
undefeatable Federer), and four times a beaten finalist looks to have a pretty
good claim to be bumped up.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If he were a
woman he would be.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the men’s formula
looks at “recent” performance on grass – and last year Nadal’s knees were
beginning to go – and he made shock early exits in the two grass tournaments he
played and gave the Olympics a miss.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His
earlier performances count for nothing.<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"> </b><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">
</span><br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">Applying judgement<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">
</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">No tennis pundit thinks Nadal is the fifth most likely
person to win the tournament.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Pre-draw
betting markets had him ranked second alongside homegrown favourite Andy
Murray, and ahead of both Federer and his compatriot, who has never won a Grand
Slam (Rafa has 12) David Ferrer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
smart move would be to seed him third or fourth which would have made sure
there was no risk of him playing the top two in the quarter finals – and also
avoiding what has happened – a quarter final versus Federer. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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</span><br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">Off the courts<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">
</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">There has been much discussion on the benefits of more data
driven decision making – in sport and in policy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And in
general, basing policy on data is much better than relying on prejudice alone. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">
</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">But the case of the Nadal seeding adds a caution.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Data alone only tell you so much.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You also need to look behind the data and apply
judgement to get the most sensible result.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This is the point US forecaster Nate Silver makes in his book “The
Signal and the Noise” – you need to start with a hypothesis you refine as more
data becomes available. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">
</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;">This view also lines up with the points </span><a href="http://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/events/evidence-enough-limits-evidence-based-policy-making"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;">Jeremy
Hardie and Nancy Cartwright</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;"> made at Institute for Government on Monday about
the way to use evidence in practice.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If
you don’t understand the key elements that drive a result, successful
replication will be impossible.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What
looks like the “same” policy will turn out to have very different results if
you misunderstood what bits of sameness mattered.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They called for the new What Works centres to
develop guidance on how to make what works somewhere work somewhere else. And
you need to find different ways of looking at the same problem to sense check
your results. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;">
</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">If Wimbledon had looked at an alternative measure of
performance – the rankings of performance in 2013 - they would have found that
Nadal isn’t the fifth ranked player in the world.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By a considerable margin, he is the best.</span> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
Jill Rutterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10017022261677991636noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-527776165242345215.post-7846264413859291512013-03-04T11:16:00.000+00:002013-03-04T18:39:43.159+00:00Politics is POINTLESS<br />
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">In the aftermath of
the Eastleigh by-election, PASC chair Bernard Jenkin reflected on the
disconnect between the Westminster village on the Today programme on Saturday
morning.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If politicians watched the
teatime quiz show Pointless, they would realise just how little the public
knows (or cares?) about them.<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">I love the quiz show Pointless (I am not alone – when he did
his back in, BBC Business Editor, Robert Peston, tweeted that the one good part
was that he would be able to watch the show).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>For those who have not watched, it the format is quite simple.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Pairs of people (an interesting demographic –
a mix of small business people, students, public sector workers and the
retired) have to find answers that the fewest people got when “100 people were
given a 100 seconds” to answer a question.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The choice of subjects is quite eclectic – from mountain ranges, to
famous blondes, to Scottish football,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>to
Latin phrases translated into English.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Whichever pair wins through the first 3 rounds gets to play for a
jackpot when they are given five categories to choose from – and then are given
3 chances to find “the all important pointless answer”.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">It’s a good format <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and makes for a fun forty-five minutes – but
it’s also a fascinating window into what a sample of people know and don’t
know.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And over a concerted period of
Pointless watching (it’s been on for years but I only discovered it in the
autumn), some very distinct patterns appear.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">First, and perhaps as expected, a lot of people know about
celebrities, films and other forms of popular culture and a bit of sport.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Geography and history are quite a lot
weaker.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>People had amazingly little
recall of Olympic medallists (only 23 named Jessica Ennis as the winner of
Heptathlon gold – what were they watching last summer?) <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">Second, those categories are the ones that the finalists
almost invariably pick reflect the same themes – but because knowledge of
categories such as “Steve Carrell” films is so widespread it’s really difficult
to find a pointless answer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">But third, from time to time, there is a politics category
on offer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It might be UK politics, or US
or world politics.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the final section,
where contestants get a choice, they almost invariably immediately rule it out
– on the basis that “they know nothing about politics” – no more shame in that
than yet another woman admitting she knows “nothing about football”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And they end up having to identify female
Brit award winners since 1970.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">It always seems a bad tactic.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Because to anyone who was listening to
Bernard Jenkin on Saturday, its unbelievably easy to find a pointless answer in
politics.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A few episodes ago the final
pair did choose politics.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They had to
identify current MPs whose surnames began with a vowel.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their first answer was George Osborne – who
scored a mighty 8.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their other answers
were Leo Abse (retired in 1987) and Gerry Adams (in the Irish Parliament now). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The jackpot went unwon. There were too many
pointless answers to list at the end.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Douglas Alexander was pointless (Danny didn’t appear to be – the fruits
of power).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In a much earlier programme
when people were asked to name women MPs, Harriet Harman and Yvette Cooper were
both pointless answers. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">But perhaps the best illustration of the disconnect between
the Westminster village and the people came in a question in an episode last
week.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The category was Radio 4
programmes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The question was “name the
programme John Humphries has presented since XX”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>6/100 people (and none of the contestants)
got the answer right.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bernard: they are
not listening.</span> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
Jill Rutterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10017022261677991636noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-527776165242345215.post-12494204581542098412013-02-09T14:00:00.001+00:002013-02-09T14:04:55.418+00:00Vote Abe -- or Birgitte<span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span><br />
<br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">SPOILER ALERT – THIS
ASSUMES YOU HAVE WATCHED THE END OF BORGEN SERIES 2 AND LINCOLN (OR AT LEAST
KNOW YOUR HISTORY) <o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">It’s been a great
month for those of us who like our dramas political and have been wondering why
we never saw Matt Santos’s first term in full technicolour.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But now Borgen has ended – until next year
-<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and there will be no Lincoln Part 2,
it seems like a good time to reflect on what these two entertainments tell us
about politics.<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;">Intriguingly, for Coalition Britain, a central theme has
been stitching together coalitions – with the noble Mr Lincoln resorting to
bringing out the US version of the payroll vote – by offering federal jobs to
lame duck Democrats to vote through the 13<sup>th</sup> amendment – and PM
Nyborg having to resort to smear tactics to get the Greens on board with her
grand “Common Future” – and exiting a potential rival to Brussels (in the best
titled episode of the series). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In both,
we are asked to admire politicians who do the wrong thing to achieve a bigger
objective.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But we also see the care and
attention that is needed to assemble and keep coalitions going.</span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">And a key theme of both is the problems politicians have in
reconciling political office with home life.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The scenes between Abe and Mary Todd Lincoln make the Borgen domestics
look restrained – at the very least until Birgitte’s last screaming match.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In both the spouses fail the Denis Thatcher
test. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But most poignant in both is the
impact on the children.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Interestingly
the littler ones cope better – whether Tad or Magnus, while it is the older
child who suffers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And the compromise
for both politicians is that they apply different rules to their children – Abe
wanting Robert not to enlist because of what his being killed would do to the
mother, Birgitte going private to jump the waiting list to get Laura into
psychiatric treatment (do they really have 50 week waiting lists n Denmark?!).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">The biggest shock is just how different politics looks in
the two.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One hundred and fifty years
(and the Atlantic) separate Lincoln and Borgen.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>While the House in Lincoln is split on abolition of slavery, it is
vehement that it will not concede votes to “negroes” – but even clearer that
votes for women would be absolutely beyond the pale.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The set up in the Danish Parliament looks
very similar – big seats, in a semi-circle with a speaker in the middle.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the composition of the two legislatures
is very different.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In 1865, it is white
men with beards. In 2012 (fictional) Denmark it is a rainbow parliament with
prominent women and Muslims.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The House
of Commons looks a bit too dangerously near the Lincoln end of the spectrum
(except for the beards).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;">But there is a heartening message from both.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Politics is a trade for honourable
people.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They can manage to survive the
chaotic home life (even if not an unfortunate theatre trip).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They can make change happen.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But one is fiction.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One is a story over a century old.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Neither is a story about British
politics.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The most recent British
political film showed our only woman prime minister struggling with Alzheimers,
not wowing Parliament and trouncing the opposition, and left people none the
wiser about what she actually did.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We still
get the hopelessness of Yes Prime Minister and the venality of the Thick of It
– and then wonder why people disengage from politics.</span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;">Which raises a question.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Can we only drop our cynicism about politics and politicians if we are
looking at the “ government” of another country?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></div>
Jill Rutterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10017022261677991636noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-527776165242345215.post-27082876042958401032012-11-29T10:57:00.001+00:002012-11-29T10:57:38.794+00:00Instant messaging
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Lord Justice Leveson
publishes his report at 1.30.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Prime
Minister, the leader of the opposition and the leader of the
Liberal Democrats aka the Deputy Prime Minister respond this afternoon.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Is that a sensible way to make policy in the minefield of press
regulation.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Speed reading was clearly the order of the day in Downing
Street yesterday as ministers cleared their desks to work out what to say on
Leveson.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Coalition Committee has
been finally hauled into action.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nick
Clegg is on the phone to the Speaker. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">After all a 2000 page report demands an instant
response.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Or does it?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Maybe from individuals<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>whose reputations may not emerge unscathed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But it is not clear that any good purpose is
served by reacting immediately in an inevitably unthought through way to the
proposals for the future.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Rather than try to make capital (or not lose it) out of
Leveson, wouldn’t it be better for the Prime Minister to stand up and simply
say: “I am very grateful to Lord Justice Leveson and his team for the immense
amount of work they have put in.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They
have produced a long and considered report.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This is an issue which raises important issues on the balance of
freedoms between individuals and the press and now deserves serious study.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That is what I and my colleagues will now do
as I hope will the party opposite.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In
the New Year, we will bring forward proposals – on which we will then consult
widely.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Where possible, I am keen to
build cross-party consensus.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And I will
look to see whether there are issues which would be better resolved by free votes
in this House.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I – and my Ministers –
like Lord Leveson, will not discuss further today”.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">And then Ed Miliband would have no option but to stand up
and agree with the Prime Minister that this was too serious a topic to rush to
instant conclusions.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Fantasy politics?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Possibly.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Better policy making?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Definitely. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
Jill Rutterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10017022261677991636noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-527776165242345215.post-31462824845744696292012-09-27T19:33:00.001+01:002012-09-27T19:33:07.720+01:00Autumn in EuropeThis is a blogpost I wrote but did not post a year ago....... as riots take hold of Madrid and Athens, there has been depressingly little progress on sorting out Europe. Consolidating democracy in southern Europe was one of the EU's great prizes - failure to act on the euro crisis is now threatening it.<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<b><span style="font-family: Calibri;">"European autumn<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<i><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The hot news earlier in the year was the Arab
spring.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Now the dominant story is
faltering leadership in Europe.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Do the
two phenomena have more in common than it looks at first sight?<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;">In the first part of the year, the world was taken aback as
the people of the Middle East rose up against oppressive regimes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The tide turned against autocracy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The other big political story of the year has been of
western leadership failing to measure up to the challenges of the eurozone
crisis; while the extent of gridlock in the US was exposed by the debt ceiling wrangling.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Huge issues are in play in Europe.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But one issue that is being exposed is the
extent to which the euro, as an elite political project, has few popular roots
in the countries that are now being asked to write the cheques to “save” the
struggling southern economies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There
are some interesting lessons to learn. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Economists would always say that a 17 member euro would
struggle to meet the tests of an optimal currency area.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The case for a Benelux + Germany with
possible additions of some Scandinavians (who opted to stay out), possibly
Switzerland and maybe France could be strong.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Adding in Spain, Portugal and Italy was a stretch.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ireland was always a risk without the UK
inside.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Greece a bridge too far.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">To make it work, it would have to be underpinned, as people
are now pointing out, by a massive deepening of European governance
arrangements – not just a central bank, but a European Finance Minister,
extensive transfers and an ability to set fiscal policy at European not
national level.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the leaders who
created the euro knew that, while people might be up for the benefits of a
single currency, they were not up for that degree of surrender of national
sovereignty.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And so that was a
conversation that leader after leader refused to have with their people before
the single currency was created.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The single currency also needed stronger central
institutions to enforce the rules – most notably on the German-inspired
Stability Pact.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The fact that France and
Germany went unpunished for breaching the rules sent an important message on
the balance of power between individual states and the centre.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At the same time, the decision to go for 2<sup><span style="font-size: x-small;">nd</span></sup>
division players as the president and high representative respectively again
reinforced the determination to maintain that this was a Europe of nations. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Which was fine – in a benign economic climate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But now we are seeing Europe struggle to cope
with the extraordinary political demands on it. There is no politically
legitimate leadership from the centre – apart from in the ECB.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At the same time, the leaders of the strong
northern states, are hamstrung by the knowledge of the limited political
appetite to make sacrifices for the euro.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>People allowed their leaders to engage in their grand projet on the
basis of a bit more economic growth and a bit less hassle when travelling – on
the basis of their assurances that this was a no risk enterprise.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Now we see a huge fissure opening up between
what leaders think might need to be done to “save” the euro (or more accurately
the banks that leant to Greece on the assumption it was Germany) and the price
voters are willing to pay. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The European autumn reflects the gap between leaders and
people.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Exactly what was exposed by the
Arab spring". <o:p></o:p></span></div>
Jill Rutterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10017022261677991636noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-527776165242345215.post-19966542455867618392012-06-29T15:57:00.002+01:002012-06-29T16:02:25.137+01:00Anyone for tennis?
The fact that Rafa Nadal’s early exit from Wimbledon is front page news only underlines how the current male tennis elite have become a class apart, expected never to lose. Whereas the women’s game is suffering from a plethora of interchangeable players none of whom match the former greats. There are parallels with political leadership.
<br />
<br />
Wimbledon will be denied the chance of a Djokovic-Nadal classic (it may yet get a Federer-Djokovic semi followed by one of them taking on Andy Murray in the final). But these two have dominated men’s tennis over the past two years – and the triumvirate have won 28 out of the last 29 grand slams – the top prizes in tennis.
The really interesting thing about this is the way that each player has inspired the other to raise their game. Roger Federer – five years older than Nadal – was gobbling up the opposition in routine victories before Nadal broke through: like Tony Blair against William Hague or Iain Duncan Smith or Margaret Thatcher against Michael Foot. Looked great but was barely tested – by the opposition at least. Since then Federer has won less – but arguably played better. Nadal then looked set to dominate, until Novak Djokovic discovered gluten free diets and the power of patriotism, leading Serbia to its first ever Davis cup win (tennis’s team competition), and lifted himself above both Nadal and Federer. But after a year in which Nadal could not beat Djokovic, a remodelled serve and more aggressive game looked to be evening up the Rafa-Novak rivalry. Poor Andy Murray sits by and wishing he was five years younger (or older).
<br />
<br />
Meanwhile the era of the great women’s champions is over for now. The Williams sisters are no longer the force they were; Steffi Graf is in Las Vegas with the kids and Martina and Chrissie who shared a riveting rivalry in the ‘70s and ‘80s are wheeled out as pundits not players. Six different women have won the last six grand slams and eight have won the last ten.
So the choice is between a few really established leaders who bestride the international stage and challenge each other to do better and raise the bar for the rest: or a mix of nice but anonymous people who briefly emerge to the fore, fail to capture the public imagination and then leave the stage to the next person who has a good two weeks, with the game not developing or growing. Who comes out on top is fairly random – who has a good draw, holds their nerve at the right time. Noone is going on to really redefine the game.<br />
<br />
It is tempting to say that political leadership in the west looks much more like the women’s game than then men’s. There are few figures who look set to make it into the history books as great leaders. Few people look set to dominate their own local politics for a prolonged period as government after government reaps the electoral consequences of austerity. And no one is imposing themselves on the game and challenging others to raise their own standards to meet them.
<br />
<br />
As we saw with Blair-Brown, political rivalries can be destabilising too (and much less fun to watch). But there is a real sense at the moment that there is a crisis of political leadership – with nobody matching up to the demands of the time. We really need some dynamic leaders to light up the world stage - more Novak and Roger and Rafa than Maria, Victoria, Sam and Petra.
And the good news for Rafa fans is that at least this year there is a second chance to see him at Wimbledon – just let’s hope Lukas Rosol isn’t in the Czech Olympic team.Jill Rutterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10017022261677991636noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-527776165242345215.post-74715239993127583312011-08-22T23:03:00.002+01:002011-08-22T23:05:46.481+01:00Test Match SpecialHere is a blog I wrote last January as England won the Ashes... looks even better as they move to No.1 in the world - and since David Cameron spent time with the team last Friday some lessons he might learn.
<br />
<br />The signs in Australian cities exhorting the public to “watch history be made” as England took on Australia for cricket’s Ashes disappeared very rapidly as the sponsors realised that this was the wrong sort of history – the first England series win in Australia for 24 years. But before the dust settles completely , it is worth looking to see whether there are any general lessons that might be learnt from England’s success.
<br />
<br />Lesson 1: prepare well
<br />The 2005-6 Ashes debacle (when England surrendered 5-0¬) was partly caused by a totally inadequate preparation. This time the team went out early; warmed up and was ready for playing in Australian conditions by the time of the first test.
<br />
<br />Lesson 2 : have a strategy based on analysis
<br />
<br />England had a plan for every Australian player – for example where usually every Australian beats their average in an Ashes series, this time they collectively underperformed. Their backroom staff had developed their strategy based on an in depth analysis of the weakness of each player.
<br />
<br />Lesson 3: don’t panic in the face of setbacks
<br />
<br />One of the most impressive things about this Ashes victory was the reaction of England’s management to their loss at Perth. Rather than panic the reaction was simply to admit that they had played badly – but to recognise that this was a failure to execute rather than a flaw in the underlying strategy. So England stuck to their plan – while the Australians got carried away on the back of a single win.
<br />
<br />Lesson 4 : be ruthless when necessary
<br />
<br />Man of the series, Alastair Cook, the England opening batsman who was nearly dropped in the summer when he lost form, paid tribute to the way the selectors stuck by him. But England also made one very ruthless decision – to drop their leading wicket taker, Steven Finn, after the Perth test. Finn’s problem was that although he was taking wickets he was also conceding loads of runs – undermining the whole England approach of strangling Australia’s “get runs fast” batsmen. So Finn was out and Bresnan in – and played brilliantly in Melbourne.
<br />
<br />Lesson 5 : manage the egos, build team spirit and make it fun
<br />
<br />England’s successful captains are those who can manage the big beasts – and turn them into team players. This time Andrew Strauss and coach Andy Flower had to contend with the mega-ego of Kevin Pietersen. Some of the stars, like Graeme Swann, didn’t play quite as big a part as predicted- but claimed that they were happier as supporting players in a successful team than in boosting their personal average in a losing campaign. And finally, after tours when there has clearly been a lot of dressing room dissent and disruption, player after player attested to how good the team atmosphere was – a tribute both to the leadership and the supporting, non-playing, members who all contributed.
<br />
<br />Finally: keep focus until the job is done
<br />
<br />England’s job was done by day four at Melbourne — the Ashes were retained and the nation celebrated. But captain Strauss made it clear that there was to be no loss of focus and England wanted to win the series – not settle for a dissatisfying draw or loss in the final test in Sydney. And England stuck to their plan in Sydney and delivered a textbook win.
<br />
<br />That said, it clearly helped that Australia was far from the team they were only four years ago – and far from clear that these ingredients would have been enough to win against the likes of McGrath, Gilchrist and Warne. But opportunities have to be taken. This series was England’s to lose – but this time England planned and delivered a memorable win
<br />Jill Rutterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10017022261677991636noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-527776165242345215.post-40466394071410968032009-08-31T22:32:00.003+01:002009-08-31T22:36:14.927+01:00You heard it here first....well if you are following the blog at all - though odd thing to be doing since have not posted since November. Update that home page more often. This is just to let you know that I am leaving Defra on secondment to the Institute for Government - am going to tell people in the office tomorrow. Timing not quite clear - but will be making the move some time in September. Not clear how google will cope with both Jill Rutters working at think tanks.. maybe we are becoming the same person. <br /><br />And that will mean that the blog will be open again for business.Jill Rutterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10017022261677991636noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-527776165242345215.post-53506481368582377012008-11-04T23:51:00.004+00:002008-11-05T02:41:56.947+00:00Election night11.50 GMT -- sitting, killing time watching reruns of SNL's Palin (what on earth possessed McCain to do the QVC stunt?).... V Heavy polling in VA according to locals on the ground.... waiting for first results to come through .... Jeremy Vine playing with his graph again... we have to wait for 6.00 for Alaska ..don't think can stay up for that and still make it to my nine o'clock tomorrow...<br /><br />11.57 -- three minutes to go - to something... .. JV running through obscure counties... David D trying to explain how networks forecast the results...claim that exit polls have Dem bias... laying off blame on ABC as BBC's affiliate. <br /><br />midnight .. bonfire night in England... -- KY to McC; VT to BO....now cut to filler about Martin Luther King and I had better do some exercises....or revert to watching Tina Fey. Bizarre to think that BO was born six years before the Supreme Court struck down miscegenation laws. 12.10 more discussion on race.... Dem win VA Senate. does that mean BO will win VA? Eric reckons that would be very good news for him - and he is a politics professor. Short tutorial now on separation of powers. Cheney's ex press sec already discussing BO's first 100 days. and now we have Ricky Gervais from New York. They wouldn't do this in the UK.<br /><br />1.00 am -- PA to Obama -- allegedly... so we finally have a result that appears to matter.. MC chances "pretty darn minimal"...and Jed Bartlett's NH has stayed blue...BO now ahead.... chancs of goign to bed at some point looking better...IL to BO -- and DC finally gets to matter..... plus MA... and DL...suddenly 67 votes ,,, but TN to Mc. Results in now... but so far BO has not taken any Bush states. <br /><br />1.15 -- Liddy Dole out in NC -- Kathy will be pleased.... saying how much NC has changed ... Raleigh Durham just described as starbucks belt....<br /><br />1.45 and while I was asleep the popular vote projection which Beeb pundit said could only go in ob direction has just narrowed down fto 50+50 -- that can't be true..better stay awake.<br /><br />1.50 -- VA seems to have disappeared off the political map... no mention for a couple of hours...<br /><br />2.05 -- final news that Fox has called OH for BO... finally a state might change from 2004....GA gone to McC - despite the fact that BC won it in 1992....they are saying v close ... DD has finally said that White House ha sliped form Republican grasp -- might be bedtime.<br /><br />2.35 -- debating whether am going to go to bed or wait up for FL.... getting quite dopey now.<br /><br />2.40 -- Simon Schama trying to get DavidD to call the election for Obama...Ben Wildavsky - my token republican friend - has told me its all over from McC with PA and OH gone... I think I am going to sign off.... but can't get as excited as I did over Bill C.... I wonder whether I would have done if Hillary had been running...Jill Rutterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10017022261677991636noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-527776165242345215.post-89223315633512702482008-11-03T21:12:00.005+00:002008-11-03T21:44:43.928+00:00Bad planningYou have 64 quarters of economic growth in which to open your mega-mall and then choose to open in the quarter when recession is likely to be confirmed... such is the fate of the vast new shopping centre at Shepherds Bush which I, along with most of West London visited on Saturday. As others have already commented, it already seems like a temple to a bygone age - so early 2000s - and an odd juxtaposition with Fiona Reynolds calling for people to reconnect with their simpler, non-consumerist selves on the radio that morning - by visiting the conspicuous consumption of the wealthy of an earlier age.<br /><br />But good to know that, in a corner of W12 there is a place where, with no need to take more than five steps, you can buy Gucci, Prada, stock up with diamonds at Tiffany's (or is that a breakfast place). Notable that there were a lot of people in cafés; long lines to buy England shirts at £ 3.49 at Sports Direct (90% off - get donw there fast) - but not a single high end bag to be seen in the sticky paw of any of the thronging masses. <br /><br />So is this completely misconceived? Quite possibly. Though once you have made it through the offputting designer village for people valet parking their Porsches and SUVs, there are some more normal stores where the tills may some day ring. And compared to Oxford Street, with about half the number of people, there would be more space to move about and no need to dodge between the lines of buses to get from one row to another. Time will tell whether this becomes a monumental folly. The verdict of a non-random sample at the tennis club in Sunday afternoon was that all had been and none would go back - to which I was the only possible exception (but at my rate of spend that won't make a decent return on £1.6bn this side of the next millennium).<br /><br />But if not misconceived, it is stunningly badly planned. Not just because the tube station dumps you out by the bus station - not into the mall (the whole point is surely to avoid any risk of exposure to fresh air). Not just because the escalators inside the mall can't cope with people wanting to go both up and down. Not just that the refurbished Shepherds Bush tube has nice white tiles, but seems to have no increased access to cope with - duh - Monroe people. Not just because nothing has been done to make traffic move around Shepherds Bush green. Will any of the people who flocked there on Saturday to then be held in a queue outside the tube station closed for congestion in pouring rain - and who then could not get a bus either - ever bother to make it back? <br /><br />Of course Saturday was exceptional. It was new. It was horrible weather. But there seems to be a complete mismatch between the assumptions on which Westfield was built -- vast numbers of people arriving from all over London - and the ability of the transport system to plan on anything like a comparable basis. But you wait 11 years for a mega-mall to be built (reassuring that these people are building the shopping mall for the Olympic village) and then you spend two hours in the rain trying to get away from it. <br /><br />But that is not the only problem with the development... it is literally all shops and a few restaurants. No homes. No offices. <br /><br />In short it is a monument to American suburban planning. Giant mall; inadequate public transport; single use. Disconnected from the local community. A potential blight on other local high streets. Jane Jacobs would be turning in her grave....Jill Rutterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10017022261677991636noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-527776165242345215.post-50492878030088214372008-10-28T22:46:00.003+00:002008-10-28T23:06:22.033+00:00Relative failureIt must be a sign of unsuccessful ageing that the airwaves seem to be dominated by friends. Just getting used to waking up to hear Evan Davis (ex-flatmate) interviewing Robert Peston (friend) about a rescue deal organised by Tom Scholar (ex-flatmate) with dire fiscal consequences predicted by Robert Chote (friend) with Michael Crick (friend) making political mayhem on Newsnight. They are all clearly having a great meltdown. <br /><br />At least they are still on the top of their game. With the rise of David Cameron a few years ago, it became rather clear that my generation was going to miss out on political power (Damian, Theresa, Willetts all in the too old box - DG and DW don't make it into the pack for the Sky News Top trumps one of my team's husband brought back from the party conference and TM counts as a "veteran"). We seem to have gone to past it without ever being "it" at any point - I suppose there is still Alan Duncan...And my generation of Labour politicos seemed to go nowhere.... we know have a Cabinet of 60 year olds and 38 year olds with nothing in between. Whatever happened to Dave Brown? Gareth Daniel? The nearest we can offer is the official only clever person in the country -- simultaneously charged with sorting out climate change in the morning and systemic bank failure in the afternoon.... the eponymous Lord Turner...and he was at Cambridge.<br /><br />But the two degrees of separation that is resonating most with those I know is that my cousin's son is a "celebrity" on Strictly Come Dancing (does that make him a second cousin? or something else?). And not just any celebrity, but one who seems to be quite a good dancer. Anyone who has seen me dance (or act) can testify to the power of genetics...<br /><br />The only problem with basking in reflected fifteen minutes of fame is that I have never met him or my cousin...Jill Rutterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10017022261677991636noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-527776165242345215.post-17453041490107445802008-10-28T22:15:00.004+00:002008-10-28T22:42:33.615+00:00What a difference seven weeks makeLong time, no blog... seems hard to think that only seven weeks ago, PL (Pre-Lehman), we still wondered if recession might be avoided; I only had a couple of bank accounts and the government only owned a couple of banks; the Tories were leading the polls by miles, and Sarah Brown had yet to make a conference appearance; DECC sounded like a brand of 50s electronic goods or something John Prescott might do to a stroppy voter.<br /><br />So all this has meant busy times...working out how to disentangle bits of climate change from what we do (and concluding that we need a better way of rearranging government to tackle cross-cutting problems, without having to occupy top departmental brains on merging IT systems, finding buildings and appointing even more HR directors). And meanwhile completely failing to book tickets to go over to the US to watch the coronation of King Obama which will make a lot of nine year olds very happy indeed and lose me $100 -- and that is now quite serious money in very feeble pounds.<br /><br />Tempting to see everything as evidence of catalytic behaviour change towards more sustainable habits - and certainly an undercurrent in some of the press that there are silver linings in recessions- people will be nicer, have more time for each other - perhaps too much as they need not be troubled with the boring inconvenience of work, be weaned off debt-driven competitive consumption and rediscover quilting bees (not sure we ever had those in the UK) as sewing machine sales soar, people discover shoes can be mended and that they do not need a new plasma screen every week. There seem to be huge number fo cyclists in the morning at Hyde Park corner - but that may just be that - until tonight - the weather in October has made up in part for the sheer awfulness of the summer. <br /><br />But perhaps, the responsible thing now - for people with semi-secure jobs and pensions - is to spend rather than wait for forecast deflation next year. So rather than save - and worry about where to put the cash, the time may have come for an out and out countercyclical consumption binge. But deep thrift is a hard habit to break - and not sure yet that I have yet been catalysed into action.Jill Rutterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10017022261677991636noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-527776165242345215.post-64099287700426538062008-09-10T23:24:00.005+01:002008-09-10T23:58:24.259+01:00Nightmare on McKinsey streetJust returned from an excellent long weekend at a sixtieth birthday party in France (or was that fortieth?). Cracking event in the Ducal Palace at Uzes - putting non-bopping thirtysomethings to shame. Thank you Robin and Madeleine. Must post on the Full of Life website...<br /><br />But also a very convenient opportunity to take stock of the state of the differences between the UK and the French economy.First experiences great - speeding through the French countryside on the TGV. great infrastructure. But shame about the customer service. The fondly imagined elegant dining car with haute cuisine served as we headed South at 200+km an hour turned into a Gallic shrug and a piece of Dundee cake and a toblerone.. il n'y avait rien a manger dans le train. And the lack of catering didn't even merit an announcement. C'est toujours come ca? You do better than that with the Southern train trolley to Bognor.<br /><br />And so to Uzes. Gorgeous place. Beautiful soft glowing yellow stone; great squares; alleyways - and not a brand name or chain in sight. Ou etait le starbucks d'antan? le Pizza Express ou le Zizzi? Since there is hardly a Town in the UK that has escaped the onward march of the chains, it was very strange to discover that France really still is a nation of epiciers and boulangers - where everything still closes for lunch. Recommended places to stay were all quaint little hotels in the city centre full of character and charm - ni un Marriott ni un Premier Inn a voir. <br /><br />I am sure that M Sarkozy has commissioned his own version of the notorious 1998 McKinsey report on the UK economy which will tell him that all this quaintness and inefficiency is costing the French economy. After all, that report said we needed to replicate the scale of Walmarts. realise the economies of scale on distribution of a chain economy and put an end to non-standardised country house hotels to achieve the same productive use of space as Travelodges if we were to close the productivity gap with the US. <br /><br />The only problem with that analysis was that France also had higher productivity than the UK - without going the US route (of course, they could have even higher productivity....)But at what price? Would the Brits still be flocking to Uzes if it tuned into yet another mall? would the guests at the party have been so charmed with the choice between two identikit hotels? Perhaps, because the weather would still be great - and until all planning laws were relaxed (McKinsey did after all lead to the Barker review of planning), the views would still be stunning wandering between the newly industrialised vineyards. Not worth it - even if you could get a decent meal on the newly privatised TGV going down there<br /><br />But I hope not. Any marginal increment in GDP would be at a very high price in terms of qualite de vie. So let us hope that there is no gallic McKinsey and Uzes remains its charming self. And we can let M Sarkozy proceed with his unusual ambition of turning the Paris banlieue into Croydon to draw people out of the centre of the town!Jill Rutterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10017022261677991636noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-527776165242345215.post-82945759497570729212008-09-02T22:49:00.003+01:002008-09-04T21:26:08.609+01:00Mind the Gapits now 20 years since I went to America on my Harkness fellowship. Before we were allowed off to try our luck on our own, we had a three day induction session in New York - the general message of which was - you might think these people speak the same language as us - but they are really different.<br /><br />I didn't really believe it at the time. And I found the Americans I met nice, bright easy to get on with and liked them a lot. So I thought this bit about culture shock was somewhat overdone. The biggest gaps I encountered were over spelling with "s"s instead of "z"s and the fact that to table something in Congress means to take it off the agenda rather than to put it on...<br /><br />But the fact that Sarah Palin is even considered a candidate for elected office outside Wasalia (or Hartlepool) seems to be to be evidence that the culture gap is alive and well. I woke up this morning (4/9) to her convention speech playing on the World Service. Every word, every sentiment grated. On every issue she seems to represent all that is most alien about the ueberchristiansed obsessive American right -- and those of us who thought that Obama vs McCain mattered less than the fact that 2009 that there would be a new person - and some new thinking - in the White House have just been proved very wrong. McCain is now looking like a desperate old man - willing to sacrifice anything for his four years of fame - a prisoner of his party who will do anything to be a one term president - including leaving a legacy of a creationist global warming denier as President.<br /><br />And what makes it even worse is I have a bet with an Obama fan that McC will win. Never will I be more relieved to write a cheque for $ 100. <br /><br />But another thought.... how does Canada manage to be surrounded by bible belts to the north and south and stay so (relatively) sane? Is this the legacy of a longer heritage of empire and the Anglican church dulling all interest in religion?Jill Rutterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10017022261677991636noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-527776165242345215.post-22359258482252160052008-09-01T22:15:00.003+01:002008-09-01T22:56:29.493+01:00As old as you feelIn a year when I have seen hardly any films, it might seem odd that the second (or is it third) movie I saw this year was Mamma Mia. Not exactly adding to my cultural arthouse credentials. Only saw it after spending most of the evening cycling around West London trying to find a non-sing-a-long version - only to conclude at the end that it was such fun that we should have had a go at belting out SOS -- after all, could hardly be worse than Pierce Brosnan (OK I could be - but I am not co-starring in a musical -- know your limitations).<br /><br />But why is Mamma Mia raking it in at the Box Office? The Abba songs? - but Abba Gold is on sale for less than the price of a ticket at the Coronet, let alone the overpriced Odeon High Street Kensington. The shots of Greek islands? - but you can get that watching A Place in the Sun or the travel channel. <br /><br />I think the secret of Mamma Mia's success is first that the cast look, literally as though they are "having the time of their life" (that's a quote from Dancing Queen if you didn't spot it). But it is also almost unique in recent movie history - or maybe in all movie history - in showing a bunch of fifty to sixty year olds having a great time, pairing up and dominating a movie as the LOVE INTEREST? When did that last happen? and when did you last see a 50+ man ending up with a late fiftiesh woman - as opposed to be someone young enough to be his granddaughter. <br /><br />So that is quite good for the thesis that fifty is the new thirty. Added to that the triumph of some older biddies in the Olympics - the forty-one year old swimmer (swimmers seem to be getting older by the year - a decade or so ago they were all under 22 -- now they seem to go on for ever). Gymnasts in their late 30s (and looking older). Cyclists coming back for more and more. I will start training for London 2012 now. <br /><br />But then this upbeat thinking about age and lack of impact is completely shattered by an item on the Defra website trailing a new government website aimed at the over-50s, entitled "Full of Life" - check it out at http://campaigns.direct.gov.uk/fulloflife/. Aimed at older people (sic) it tells them handy stuff about how to use the internet (maybe it does tell you how to put hyperlinks into blogs); is full of inspiring stories about how wise they are... and shouldn't be written off yet. Did the people inventing this stuff try it on their Permanent Secretary first who might enjoy the handy hints on not being a totally useless member of the community at age 50+? And will we all get the day off on Oct 1st - now officially Older Person's Day. Party time on zimmerframes.<br /><br />So I am now officially annoyed. The Mamma Mia effect has worn off and I'll stop thinking that some day my pierce will come. No option but to give up my Olympic ambitions and return to being Victor Meldrew and book that Saga cruise.Jill Rutterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10017022261677991636noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-527776165242345215.post-15157157366579311272008-08-31T21:02:00.002+01:002008-08-31T21:18:50.475+01:00Essay crisisIts the last chance to add to the August blog list -- and I need to get something down urgently or will have only one thing down for the month. But so much to do these days with the gym and the tennis court, the Olympics with success of the oddly named Team GB- did they always call it that or is it some subliminal thing? , the resurgent KP England (good thing I didn't immortalise my great "terrible decision" prediction there for all to read) and now the US tennis to watch (though Murray gets no less annoying). Brief stumble in Nadal worship caused by his very un-Federer like decision to appear on the front of the New Yorker with his shirt off - but am sure it was all in a good cause. On medical front have new physio and new exercises which require me to make my buttocks ache - her words not mine... so my current aim is to be a pain in the backside - or at least to have one. <br /><br />So that is a whole bunch of excuses - and why the dullest August on record - its official - has actually been quite fun - helped by spending it in Greece and Spain. But the new month;s resolution is to get back to blogging - as the political season gets back from the beach, we limber up for Matt Santos vs whoever Geena Davis played in that Commander-in-Chief thing which seems to have dictated McC's VEEP pick (time for the Hillaristas - I missed where PUMAs came from - to realise views trump gender), the words Alistair Darling and gaffe appear together in a headline for the first ever time.<br /><br />So I have read a lot; got a bit browner and fitter; made my buttocks ache - but not enough - and am generally feeling like getting back to serious work - until my next holiday on Friday. I will have only worked one Friday since July -- and that feels pretty good. And I have finally cracked using my nice little Defra laptop from home. And this is a portable computer that even I am prepared to lug around - so more "working from home" may be in order.<br /><br />So new month's resolution - back to serious blogging. The holiday is over.Jill Rutterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10017022261677991636noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-527776165242345215.post-6056697896144172932008-08-09T08:09:00.002+01:002008-08-09T08:34:33.765+01:00Breaking the droughttoo much going on all summer to do much blogging.... loads of people passing through - visitors from Virginia, Sudan and Kosovo (why do my friends all end up in weird places); gyms to be gone to; starting playing tennis again - ball toss gone awry and still very immobile; cricket to watch - day three of a cracking test at the Oval - though forecast dire from lunchtime. And in between even some work to do as we ready ourselves for autumn relaunches. <br /><br />Interesting holiday in Corfu - lovely villa - a real Place in the Sun special. You would definitely buy it - especially if you didn't know about the wasps when investing; for the pool but also for the views across the picturesque harbour of Kassiopi over to the barren hills of Albania. But what you didn't see from the villa was that the influence of Brits has turned the undoubtedly charming fishing village Kassiopi was twenty years ago into a Laganas lite. Having avoided the costas in Spain it has been a long time since I have been exposed to the reality of Brits at play. No need or attempt to speak a word of Greek. Sky sports, karaoke and pop quizzes in every bar. A lot of pink and blue flesh on display. And - I am told by our teenage companions - very good nightlife - consisting for them of Sloanes on something called WKD - not to be confused with WD40. Biggest crisis was when the teens got carded at 4.00 a.m. in the morning and got chucked out for only being 17.... and discovered their fake ID was lurking at home unpacked. Biggest complaint was that this was unfair as the average age of the drinkers in the bar was 14. Still, one red card seemed not to count for the rest of the holiday as the same bar happily had them back (suddenly aged???) night after night; daybreak after daybreak. <br /><br />Interesting that if these children were not being sent to expensive schools by their parents, and lived in SE3 rather than SW3, their behaviour would probably make them near ASBO candidates - though their gangs carry fake Gucci handbags and credit cards rather than knives. Instead most of them will be at Oxford in a couple of years time, and the Etonians will probably be leading the Tories in another fifteen to twenty (scary visions of watching them around the pool that I was on holiday with Cameron and Osborne's younger brothers). But despite the success of Dave and Boris they will need to work on the Wooster accents their schools seem determined to handicap them with - and which will certainly rule out a job in the BBC.<br /><br />But biggest surprise.... except for the morning I got woken up when they were coming back from the bar just as I was battling an annoying mosquito and debating whether to get up to do a Sun Salutation (from my fifteen minute yoga book) at dawn, they were good holiday companions... as long as there was enough ketchup around to go with every meal. Maybe McDonalds has an even greater impact on lifetime habits than <br />Eton.Jill Rutterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10017022261677991636noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-527776165242345215.post-71384540587779427822008-07-15T22:39:00.002+01:002008-07-15T22:44:44.497+01:00Sign of the times 4It may just be a small sample, but in the bike shop yesterday the bikes seemed to be flying off the shelf. I have no idea how many they sell in a week - but at 6.30 on a Monday there were two bike sales being completed. And at the Hyde Park corner crossing this evening there seemed to be a lot of gleaming Ridgebacks and Giants on show.<br /><br />I tried to check up on what was happening on the ONS website. But looking at road transport just gave me a lot of car data - ONS don't seem to use anything else -- and the latest cycle data I could find finished in 2001.<br /><br />Stories from the US of soaring bike sales as SUVs become a thing of the past. I wonder what the hard data is here.Jill Rutterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10017022261677991636noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-527776165242345215.post-37568921987744415332008-07-08T22:45:00.003+01:002008-07-15T22:39:04.695+01:00Lessons in leadershipwhere did John Browne go wrong at BP? that - rather surprisingly - was the question that came up at a two day festival of leadership at Michael Portillo's alma mater of Peterhouse Cambridge (nice orchard) last week.... All CH rules so can't go into too many details -- but I joined a group on whether leaders needed crises in order to lead. And the proposition was that it was opposition within BP to the JB rebrand to Beyond Petroleum and the replacement of the shield by the helios that lead inexorably to his downfall. Not surprisingly, that thesis was advanced by someone who had worked on the rebranding....<br /><br />Nice to put yourself at the centre of the story - but the link between people who did not like Beyond Petroleum and the people failing to invest in safety in Texas City is pretty tendentious. So I put forward my alternative critique of what went wrong at BP under John Browne (notwithstanding that an awful lot went right as well).<br /><br />The first - and biggest - BP mistake was the performance culture. There is nothing wrong with a performance culture - indeed I have never felt under so much performance pressure as I did at BP. But the BP performance culture became a macho obsession -- every quarter better; no admission of failure; no recognition of reality. The result was that any manipulable number was manipulated -- to make it -look good. No surprise that when sarbanes-oxley hit, an awful lot of underprovision - of environmental clean-up; pension provision was discovered. And that is the same mentality that starts cutting back on routine maintenance.<br /><br />The second problem was the interlocking incentives that became a high performance mirage conspiracy. If my bonus depends on your performance I don't have too much incentives to question the phoney numbers you are serving up. So what should be a way of giving the Board assurance on delivery becomes a virtual performance Ponzi scheme. <br /><br />The third was a culture of sycophancy. Hardly anyone ever dared challenge John Browne. he knew more about your business than you did. He was always right (and his one error - on Sidanco in Russia would be forgotten by the triumph of the TNK JV - well that was the theory). Everyone was jostling for the succession -- and knew that they were all part of a prolonged beauty contest with only one judge. Not an environment conducive to serious internal challenge - more like the court of Henry VIII.<br /><br />But what about the non-executives ask the corporate governance groupies? But that exposes the weakness of the non-executives. It is simply unrealistic to expect non-execs to be able to see off an apparently all-conquering executive team. And if the right numbers and messages aren't coming up to the top of the executive tree, hard to see how the part-timers even more distanced from the business are going to be able to do it.<br /><br />So what are the lessons? John Browne was the most impressive leader I have come across. But he would have been even better if he had encourage a culture of internal challenge and honesty and not ruled by terror. And then someone might have dared admit that there was a big safety issue in the US refineries. Or that things were going wrong in the Alaska pipelines. And his reputation - deservedly high for transforming BP from second division to top player - would not have suffered a torrid final year.Jill Rutterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10017022261677991636noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-527776165242345215.post-80494422905254191582008-07-07T23:08:00.002+01:002008-07-07T23:25:20.849+01:00Strategic errorNot a recantation of the Defra strategy refresh - but a lament for a key failure of decision-making under uncertainty.... whatever possessed me to be the only person on the planet who failed to see the last set of the Rafa v Roger epic last night. Am trying to analyse how I go this so wrong... So let us analyse the factors.<br /><br />First, timing. The rain break at 7.50 meant that I could just catch the last direct train. Five minutes later I would have not been able to get it... <br /><br />Second, meanness. Staying in Chichester imposed a cost - the extra £ 26 of buying a peak fare to London instead of a saver. £ 26 seemed a high price to pay for the option of a last set - when it looked improbable (notwithstanding Alex the Wimbledon weather man claiming play could restart within 25 minutes) that play would restart and finish that night.<br /><br />Third, a feeling that Federer would win in the end ... after Rafa failed to take the three key break points for 5-3 in the third set; failed to impose himself at 5-2 in the tie-break; take the two match points he did create in the fourth; a feeling that in the same way as England crumbled in Adelaide, he just didn't quite believe that he could win.<br /><br />And fourth, so I valued avoiding an evening in Chichester watching it rain at Wimbledon and Sue Barker get ever more despairing, a slightly early start the next morning at more than having the option on watching the final set of the greatest tennis match ever. On a par with my friend Jayne's decision not to pay £ 10 for the option to watch England win the Ashes at the Oval in September 2005 (but that had a much lower probability in March that year - so a less loony decision - but being there is a more intense delight than simply being one of the 13.1 million watching here on TV - so a higher cost for getting it wrong).<br /><br />But I got it wrong. I now realise that I would have paid a really quite high price to have seen that last set of nerve-shredding tennis in the gloom of Wimbledon. So after missing the last set last year, I vowed never to miss a Nadal-Federer final - only to repeat again. Next year I will not budge - but next year the roof will reduce the uncertainty so maybe this is a dilemma that I will never face again. <br /><br />Still, Rafa still won - so a great week for Spanish sport - but I can't believe I saw the football... and missed the drama of the tennis.Jill Rutterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10017022261677991636noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-527776165242345215.post-3929890140151455902008-07-03T22:14:00.002+01:002008-07-03T22:22:03.325+01:00Signs of the times 3Fascinating stuff from Stuart Rose yesterday on the Marks slump.... people changing the way they shop. Fewer journeys to stores. More visits to local stores. Rejecting out of town shopping. And overpriced and overprepared M and S food. And there seems to be much less traffic on London streets -- I have managed to ride to work and not have to stop at Great George Street which normally only happens in the school holidays. <br /><br />And on the TV they are just saying that Starbucks is cutting 12000 jobs in the US and cutting 600 outlets. Need to start monitoring that too. <br /><br />Having to chop your own vegetables.. and make do with a bit less caffeine (not sure how much there is in a Starbucks coffee anyway) hardly seems the equivalent of the Irish potato famine. Which points to the need to make sure that wallowing in our own recession gloom does not make us forget where the real impacts of the food/ oil price hikes are being felt.Jill Rutterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10017022261677991636noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-527776165242345215.post-49113314496303949322008-06-28T11:51:00.003+01:002008-06-28T12:05:59.677+01:00Signs of the times 2intriguing story in today's Guardian about how transport organisations are ordering their drivers to drive more slowly (= sensibly, economically) to conserve fuel and thus save money in response to the high price of oil. London buses are also carrying Mayoral ads telling drivers to change gears at lower revs to save fuel and money. The most interesting statement though was from the airlines who said that notwithstanding the slower flying (2% slower on Easyjet), there would be no discernible difference for passengers. <br /><br />It will be fascinating to see if this finally causes a reverse in the upward march of transport emissions -- particularly if cuts are significant -- to show what can be done without biofuels and attendant environmental and food price consequences; without taking the politically risky route of appearing to be anti-driver and anti-flyer; without challenging the overmighty car industry to raise its standards and without any major investment in new technology or infrastructure. It just requires people not to check out their brain when they get behind the wheel and to think about what they are doing - which seems harder than it looks. Last time I drove any distance (OK ten miles) my sedate 55 consigned me to very slow as people put their foot on the accelerator and burned down the A 27. Mind you that was five weeks ago so all could have changed now as people and companies realise that rising prices do not need to translate into the same rise in bills. <br /><br />So have we finally reached a transport catalyst?<br /><br />For some maybe - but not for everyone. Interestingly two airlines were reported as rejecting these moves and said instead that they would simply be opting to charge their passengers more as they continue to pump out the carbon. Well done BA and Ryanair.Jill Rutterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10017022261677991636noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-527776165242345215.post-47944648728266701042008-06-26T22:05:00.002+01:002008-06-26T22:28:26.266+01:00HD or not HD?My TV suddenly decided to restore colour to celebrate the second Spanish goal (tips seem to be doing quite well!). But I still need to order a new Sky Box. And today a new and very 21st century dilemma presented itself.<br /><br />One of my team was extolling the virtues of HD if you want to watch sport on television. So should I make the leap? Isn't it an unnecessary carbon indulgence? Is it the sort of thing I could do and stay in the "positive green" behaviour segment? Or would I be relegated a few segments? Is it the sort of thing I could do and still champion sustainable development. And wouldn't it mean consigning my - still functioning - TV to the WEE dump five years before it's due?<br /><br />What scope for offsetting? Solar thermal? Probably not worthwhile given how long my energy consumption is already? Fly less -- hard to do less than this year so far (zero) but should i abandon a theoretical flight later this year? Would an HD screen reduce social capital and be bad for my health and wellbeing -- more evenings in and fewer in the gym sneaking peaks at the TV - with colour - while on the treadmill? <br /><br />Or would it be the right counter-cyclical measure -- after all there are all those Dixon employees whose jobs are at risk as the market for electrical appliances crashes? Is it my responsibility to keep the market in electrical appliances afloat and bolster retail confidence? Is that what lies behind the shopping surge in May?And the factory somewhere near Shenzhen which undoubtedly makes all HD screens? Do I have a duty to them? <br /><br />Or is the worst thing to do to invest now in a new sky box -- and then change my mind in a year's time....and have a redundant box I should never have bought in the first place?<br /><br />The colour has just disappeared again -- but the BBC are refusing to show the Nadal match and offering me a choice of Murray (yawn) or Keothevang ....<br /><br />I think the answer is to dither and delay - what I always do when faced with any option of spending money and committing to a capital purchase... and to postpone all purchases.. and hope that today's renewable energy strategy means that by 2020 I can buy a gas guzzling TV screen with a clear conscience. In the meanwhile I can take comfort that at least in Wimbledon even Rafa has to play in white... and as long as the Spaniards win, does it really matter if my TV picture simply shows 11 Germans and a ball as the red-strip Spaniards merge into the green sward of Vienna.Jill Rutterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10017022261677991636noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-527776165242345215.post-84441492108187790762008-06-22T21:35:00.002+01:002008-06-22T21:49:17.083+01:00Double fault?So who is to blame for the fact that hapless Brits will yet again have to watch from the sidelines as a Swiss or a Serb or a Spaniard lifts the Wimbledon trophy yet again. <br /><br />According to the head of the Lawn Tennis Association it's me -- or at least people like me, who play what is derisively called "social tennis". <br /><br />So in a country where obesity is a rising problem; where most adults - and especially most women - get far too little physical activity - why knock a game which people can enjoy playing until they are old (we have ninety years olds playing); which doesn't require you to find 21 other like-minded people for a quick game and which people can and do keep playing (anyone out there playing much netball these days? hockey after thirty? football without needing to spend hours in A and E?).<br /><br />But social tennis is to blame for the fact that the LTA -- for all its millions from Wimbledon - fails to produce a home-grown champion.<br /><br />I think they need to look elsewhere for the solutions -- from giving kids whose parents don't play a chance to learn the game - which hardly even happens in private schools these days; to more summer coaching; to more courts; to more indoor facilities. And to stop caring so much - am looking forward to a Federer/Djokovic v Nadal final without ludicrous swooning jingoism from the dreadful BBC commentary team. Tennis is an individual not a team game -- who cares where they come from.<br /><br />And elite sport needs to recognise its place in the world. If its a choice between sport for the few or sport for the many - chose the many any time - and let's view social tennis as a very good thing - and concentrate on producing the social tennis players of the future. That might even throw up a few really good ones.Jill Rutterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10017022261677991636noreply@blogger.com0